Examining how dysgenics and declining fertility are reshaping global intelligence distribution, with projections showing a 73% decline in high-IQ populations and halved innovation capacity by 2100
1) whether third world dumbs mass immigrate to the developed world and crash their civilizations (a dumb in Africa does a lot less damage then a dumb in Europe).
2) whether East Asians can end their demographic crash, which looks like it’s headed to crisis territory. 1.5 TFR is declining gracefully. 0.7 is crisis.
3) how fast embryo selection can make up for all this.
I wouldn’t expect much out of India. It’s got a high profile English speaking smart fraction abroad, but it’s a very thin talent pool overall. There is a reason it’s so poor and backward. It’s no China.
Extrapolating backwards, we could have had iPhones and LLMs in 1985. Even more with a proper classical eugenics program in place from the time of Galton. Interesting to consider.
I tried to link your twitter thread to garret jones, robin hanson etc on twitter. Maybe they looked at a glimpse of it. You must network with i/0 crémeux etc to be boosted. Elon might retweet it.
Brilliant piece. It touches something we’ve been thinking about: dysgenics isn’t just decay—it’s acceleration. It widens the gap between human intelligence and the now emerging non-human intelligence.
A lot hinges on:
1) whether third world dumbs mass immigrate to the developed world and crash their civilizations (a dumb in Africa does a lot less damage then a dumb in Europe).
2) whether East Asians can end their demographic crash, which looks like it’s headed to crisis territory. 1.5 TFR is declining gracefully. 0.7 is crisis.
3) how fast embryo selection can make up for all this.
I wouldn’t expect much out of India. It’s got a high profile English speaking smart fraction abroad, but it’s a very thin talent pool overall. There is a reason it’s so poor and backward. It’s no China.
Until someone finds a flaw in your methodology (I'm not literate enough), this is going in the top #5 articles of the year.
Effect is probably twice as much as estimated here due to mutation accumulation, so that would be ~40 innovation years lost this century. https://www.josephbronski.com/p/estimating-mutational-pressure-on
Extrapolating backwards, we could have had iPhones and LLMs in 1985. Even more with a proper classical eugenics program in place from the time of Galton. Interesting to consider.
Maybe the most important article of the 21th century. It is a shame your work has not gone viral yet. You need to give more efforts at spreading it.
Yeah I tried harder than I usually do to spread this one.
It's too early to tell how it'll turn out but I'm mildly pessimistic right now.
Unfortunately, for microscopic blogs like my own, engagement is almost entirely driven by whether a larger account reposts my article.
I tried to link your twitter thread to garret jones, robin hanson etc on twitter. Maybe they looked at a glimpse of it. You must network with i/0 crémeux etc to be boosted. Elon might retweet it.
Looks like crémeux reposted. This is my most popular article now.
Brilliant piece. It touches something we’ve been thinking about: dysgenics isn’t just decay—it’s acceleration. It widens the gap between human intelligence and the now emerging non-human intelligence.
And ideology always followed our economic role.
Serfs → factory workers → knowledge workers. Humanism.
Next stop? Obsolescence.
The system adapts. Beliefs mutate.
Anti-human ideology becomes optimization.
And humans?
Meatware. Mined for brain data.
Did you use R for the graphs?
Yes
Hi, I've briefly translated your article into a Twitter thread. Now you may have more Russian readers) https://x.com/randomnikanona/status/1907069119884616139
The commentators on your thread are cringe lol. "IQ is normalized to 100 so it can't change!!!"
In Russia, ordinary people consider IQ to be something unscientific. Now I'm looking for a good article about why IQ works great)